Dear Decision Maker, Western intelligence has a blind spot problem. And it's costing companies millions. I've spent almost 2 decades in intelligence, moving from government to private sector work. The most valuable lesson I learned? The best intelligence doesn't come from the most credentials. It comes from the most perspectives. Last year, a European energy company asked us to assess political risk for a major infrastructure project in East Africa. They'd already paid a top-tier Western...
9 days ago • 2 min read
Dear Decision Maker, Everyone’s watching the same indicators. Market reports. Quarterly earnings. Regulatory filings. Stock movements. By the time these signals appear, the opportunity is gone Real intelligence doesn’t come from what’s published. It comes from what’s changing before anyone publishes it. Three months ago, a client asked us to assess a West African market they’d been tracking for years. Every conventional indicator said “wait.” GDP growth flat. Currency unstable. Political...
16 days ago • 2 min read
Dear Decision Maker, Most companies treat intelligence as an expense. A necessary cost. A risk mitigation tool. Something you budget for and hope you never really need. They're looking at it backwards. A private equity firm came to us last year evaluating a $50M acquisition in Sub-Saharan Africa. Their standard due diligence said everything checked out. Financial statements clean. Legal compliance confirmed. Market position validated. They were ready to close. We charged them $120,000 for...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Dear Decision Maker, Most executives make complex decisions based on incomplete information. Then wonder why they're surprised by outcomes. After almost two decades advising leaders on high-stakes choices, I've noticed something consistent. The best decision-makers don't wait for perfect information. They use a framework to navigate uncertainty. I call it the Decision Advantage Matrix. It's simple. Four quadrants. Two questions. What do we know with certainty? What do we need to know to act?...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Dear Decision Maker, Ray White is back on the Grey Dynamics Podcast, and this time we're talking about something. I'm genuinely excited about: the Human Intelligence Fundamentals course he's created for us. Look, I've read a lot of HUMINT material over the years. I’ve done the courses; talked to the practitioners; worked with some of the best in the business. But what Ray has put together here is different. It's not some academic theory-fest that puts you to sleep, and it's definitely not the...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Dear Decision Maker, The most valuable currency in business isn't money. It's access. Six months ago, a client was struggling to break into the African infrastructure market. Two years of cold emails. Dozens of failed pitches. Zero progress. One introduction changed everything. Not to a consultant. Not to a middleman. Directly to the person who controlled $200M in project approvals. That's the power of elite networks. Here's what most people get wrong about networking: They collect contacts....
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Dear Decision Maker, Western intelligence gets it wrong more often than it admits. Not because the analysts aren't smart. They are. But because they're looking at the world through one lens. I spent years in Western intelligence circles before building networks across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. The difference in perspective is staggering. A European intelligence firm once hired us to assess political risk in a West African country. Their report predicted stability based on: GDP growth...
2 months ago • 1 min read
Dear Decision Maker, Most executives see crisis and freeze. Smart money sees crisis and moves. The difference? Intelligence. When COVID hit in early 2020, everyone was paralyzed by uncertainty. Markets crashed. Boardrooms went silent. But one client asked us a different question: "What opportunities are others too scared to see?" Our ground truth assessment revealed something remarkable. While Western companies were pulling back from Africa, Chinese and Indian firms were quietly accelerating...
2 months ago • 1 min read
Dear Decision Maker, The intelligence world’s dirty secret? The most valuable insights come often from the smallest teams. I’ve briefed both sides. Government agencies with thousand-person staffs and independent units of five people working out of hotel rooms. Guess which ones consistently deliver game-changing intelligence? Here’s what I learned watching a three-person team outmaneuver a 100-person intelligence division: 1. Speed kills bureaucracy. While the big team was forming committees...
3 months ago • 1 min read