Early Warning Signals Your Competition Is Missing


Dear Decision Maker,

Everyone’s watching the same indicators.

Market reports. Quarterly earnings. Regulatory filings. Stock movements.

By the time these signals appear, the opportunity is gone

Real intelligence doesn’t come from what’s published. It comes from what’s changing before anyone publishes it.

Three months ago, a client asked us to assess a West African market they’d been tracking for years. Every conventional indicator said “wait.”

  • GDP growth flat.
  • Currency unstable.
  • Political headlines uncertain.

But our ground truth told a different story.

We noticed 3 signals no one else was tracking:

  1. A major state-owned enterprise quietly restructuring procurement processes.
  2. Local competitors stockpiling inventory despite “flat” demand forecasts.
  3. Chinese firms accelerating construction timelines on infrastructure projects that weren’t officially announced yet.

These weren’t in any report. They were visible only through human intelligence networks.

Our client moved immediately.

Six weeks later, the government announced a $1B infrastructure initiative.

By the time competitors saw the headlines, our client had already secured strategic partnerships and locked in supply agreements at pre-announcement prices.

Early warning signals exist in 3 places most companies never look:

  1. Changes in behaviour before changes in policy.
  2. Movement of money before movement in markets.
  3. Shifts in relationships before shifts in strategy.

Your competition is reading the same reports you are.

  • They’re analysing the same data.
  • They’re watching the same news.
  • They’re all reacting to the same signals.

The companies that win are the ones who see what’s coming before it becomes news.

A source tells you a regulator is frustrated with current enforcement three months before policy changes.

A contact mentions their biggest competitor just hired away a key relationship manager.

Someone in your network casually mentions a state-owned enterprise is “reorganizing priorities.”

These conversations don’t show up in databases.

But they predict what will.

Most executives wait for confirmation before acting.

Winners act on information before it becomes confirmed.

The difference between intelligence and news? Timing.

News tells you what happened yesterday. Intelligence tells you what happens tomorrow.

What early warning signals is your organisation tracking that competitors don’t even know exist?


In fast-moving markets, the competitive advantage doesn’t go to those who react fastest to public information. It goes to those who act before information becomes public.

Ready to see what’s coming before your competition reads about it in headlines? The signals are already there. The question is whether you have the networks to detect them.


CEO Grey Dynamics
Where headlines end, ground truth begins


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