Leadership Analysis I

Tulsi Gabbard: New U.S. Intel Chief Has Everyone Talking

In February 2025, 43-year-old Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed as US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in a 52-48 Senate vote, with only one Republican opposing her nomination—senior party personality Mitch McConnell. Unlike her predecessor, Avril Haines, who has decades of intelligence experience, Gabbard’s background as a former congresswoman and National Guard veteran—absent any intelligence experience—raises concerns about her ability to oversee the US Intelligence Community’s 18 spy agencies. Gabbard is also widely viewed as a loyalist to President Trump and someone who is largely driven by personal ambition.

Her controversial actions and comments have fuelled bipartisan unease about her objectivity and judgement. These include meetings with Bashar al-Assad, scepticism of U.S. intelligence on Russia, and support for pardoning Edward Snowden. Former intelligence officials worry her leadership could politicise assessments and strain the Five Eyes alliance. Additionally, past ties to the secretive Science of Identity Foundation, efforts to suppress media scrutiny of an alleged pyramid scheme, and ties to India’s Hindu Nationalist Party and President Modi raise transparency and other concerns.

Her confirmation reflects Republican tolerance for areas of concern that she brings to the job. Her appointment marks a major shift in US Intelligence Community leadership that has uncertain global implications.

Leadership Analysis II

Michael Ellis: Who Is Trump's Unilaterally-Appointed CIA Deputy Director?

Michael Ellis, who previously served as General Counsel of the National Security Agency during the first Trump administration, was sworn in on 10 February 2025 as the CIA Deputy Director. His appointment was announced by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who praised Ellis as a highly respected figure within the Intelligence Community and one of the nation's finest national security professionals. John Ratcliffe, the current director of the Agency, expressed enthusiasm for Ellis’s arrival at Langley, highlighting their long-standing professional relationship.

Leadership Analysis III

Kash Patel: Who is Trump’s New FBI Director?

On 20 February 2025, the US Senate confirmed Kashyap (Kash) P. Patel as the new director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This marks a pivotal moment for US law enforcement and domestic intelligence. We assess that his new role will put Patel under increased scrutiny over his perceived loyalty to Trump, his past support for conspiracy theories, and his conflicts of interest.

That said, the FBI’s strategic targets are unlikely to shift. However, we expect the Bureau to undergo reforms in line with President Trump’s goal of decreasing the size of the federal government. Critics point towards Patel’s lack of experience in leading a major law enforcement or intelligence agency. They express concern about his past comments about retributions against political opponents and fear a pro-Trump politicisation of the FBI. His supporters hope that Patel will reform the FBI to promote higher transparency, and accountability, and increase public trust in federal law enforcement.

The Senate confirmed Patel in a narrow 51-49 vote, highlighting the deep partisan division surrounding his appointment. As Patel assumes his office, his ability to balance reforms with the need for agency independence will be crucial.

Intelligence Reports

Paragon Spyware: The New Pegasus? 

State actors will almost certainly not use Israeli spyware firm Paragon for the same purposes as NSO’s Pegasus. Although Pegasus pitches itself as a way to prevent crime and ensure national security, it made headlines in 2021 due to its misuse by several governments. Additionally, the zero-click malware eliminates the need for user interaction, making the software highly malicious. In response, the United States Department of Commerce (DOC) placed NSO on the Entity List in 2021, barring it from trading with U.S. companies without government approval.

Furthermore, Paragon’s military-grade hacking software, Graphite, is licensed exclusively to states and rivals NSO Group’s Pegasus software. Pegasus's DOC listing left a gap in the market for a high-end surveillance product, which Paragon filled.

In-depth Articles & Guides

Redut PMC: The Kremlin's Private Army

Redut is a Russian Private Military Company (PMC) also known as Centre R, PMC Redut, and Redut Security. The organisation is part of the “anti-terror family,” a grouping of PMCs that protects Russian commercial interests and also advances Russian geopolitical goals. Nominally controlled by the foreign military intelligence agency of the Russian Federation, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU), it acts as a proxy umbrella organisation that manages several different PMCs. Established in 2008, it has operated in a variety of fields and theatres, including Syria and, during the Russo-Georgia War of 2008, in Georgia. It is currently active in both Ukraine and Africa through its sub-units.